Prediction Method Continued

WHAT IS OMITTED OR EXCLUDED FROM THE DATA?

Having started to explain what goes into monthly prediction, I must re-iterate that I do not use any modern technology. The aim is to create a prediction using what was available to our forefathers.

So modern meteorological language and theory is not included, which is not to say that some or all of the following were not in existence when our forefathers did their predictions, it is that I can find no instances at all of any mention of anything below in all my research; and the simple reason for that is that such things were not yet discovered.

The following therefore, whilst everyday language for weather forecasters, presenters and journalists and those in meteorological world, they do not feature in any way shape or form in may predictions; they just do not exist in my methodology. OK, so I may penalise myself and therefore, without this modern knowledge, not be able to produce such accurate predictions, but I am not a Luddite and therefore I accept these omissions as part of the restrictions on the methodology; but regardless the predictions, even with this lack of data, maintain to be extremely accurate.

The list is not exhaustive but the main exclusions are as follows: Jet streams; Blocking patterns; La Lina; El Nino; North Atlantic Oscillation and stratospheric connection; Pacific Oscillation: Atlantic Sub-Polar currents; Gulf Stream: Volcano effects; Greenhouse gases; Ozone layer; Solar variability Climate change; Global warning and finally the Lorentz Chaos theory.

I hear the question Why? A few years I did another project to discover why the part of Edenbridge where I live is named Spitals cross. After much research (running parallel to this weather research at times) I found the answer, but also some most interesting weather detail emerged too; and everyone now talks of global warming, the causes and effects etc; but this climate change is nothing new.

I commenced the research into Spitals cross in the medieval period 1110 AD when the original name of Edenbridge first appears, and found that at that time there was a Mediterranean climate in this region, grapes maize and other such central European crops were grown; but also this climate and the influence of the Crusades meant that Leprosy was rife too. A Spital was a leper hospital, normally outside the main town, down wind, and was an isolation unit comprising of about six or so buildings with its own running fresh water source. (Nearly all the places in the UK with the word Spital in the title were such leper hospitals. Eg Spitalfields in London, the Spitals interchange in Lincolnshire, and also of interest nearly all on the main Roman routes).

In the early 1300’s the climate started to change and in one year in the 1340’s there were nine months of frost here in Edenbridge. Move on the 1580’s and the Reformation and the climate were again hot with drought conditions. Into the 1700’s and it was again so cold that all the rivers froze solid, including the Thames.

So what is there so different about the current variation in climate? A personal theory is that it may well be cyclical; therefore from past evidence it may well be the start of a climate change period, but that does interfere with my predictions.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE FULL MONTHLY DETAIL

In order to try to indicate how a monthly prediction/forecast looks when completed I have attached the complete data for the month of January 2012.

The next three entries are pages for January 2012 in the portrait format.

You will see how some entries interact with future dates and future weather.

It gives an indication of what goes into the production of just one month.

Note too how the Met Office stormy periods dovetail perfectly with the stormy moons.

From the data that occurs during the month a separate log is kept for each future month and the data noted. To state, for example, that February 2012 and Spring 2012 would be very cold, I needed four separate unconnected reliable facts, that I could check and verify (these all coming from 2011 data), when the four facts all agreed then I make the pronouncement.

I adopt a ruling, a set of parameters, that I must have four separate unconnected pieces of data, the checked and verified for each affirmative entry. There are some exceptions to this rule when there are three really significant pieces of data. Anything less than three is excluded.

I must always follow the trail that the data produces, however ‘off the wall’ it may appear, for as soon as you deviate, the methodology is useless and worthless. So, to state in October 2011 that June 2012 would damp (wet) was not an act of faith, it was based on solid fact that I checked and verified.

Similarly to state that Christmas 2012 would be devoid of snow, would be warm and wet in the previous September had the exact result as predicted; and from this also that Easter 2013 would be cold. You will find that as certain 'flow charts 'have the 'if----then' statements so do certain combinations of the weather conditions. So if such statements were common in 1200ad - the theory of computerisation was forming then!

I am asked quite often 'How do you know with such certainty?' - the simple answer is that I have been doing this now for many years, and, as the methodology improves and the interpretation of what nature tells me improves, and the resultant predictions likewise; which does not mean I am not infallible, I am not perfect, but if it goes badly wrong, then I retrace the footsteps and invariably I have misread or misinterpreted a small but vital (in hindsight) detail. So, I learn to be 100% accurate as far as I am able. Human error in not infallible either.

Since this website, without any disrespect to the reader, but to aim for simplicity and non-technical terms, it is written by a Dummy for Dummies - there is a highly successful book publisher who publishes under this title and therefore I borrow from those volumes.

Each monthly bulletin comes with a preamble, which recaps on the previous month, brings any interesting points for the forthcoming month to notice, sometimes has a comment, adverse or otherwise concerning maybe a comment, those who filch the data here and make no acknowledgements, and maybe a 'tick or two.' It is never disrespectful, contentious maybe, but it is a free democracy and I have my chirp too.

The final part is an 'easy spreadsheet,' where in spreadsheet form the month is laid out, a where the correlation between moon weather, warm or cool periods, stormy or quiet periods, perigee and full moons are all easily indicated, and the methodology all comes together is easy visible form.

There now follows the second part of each monthly submission, the monthly data sheet, which has everything the reader needs for the month and also to help advance predict the future months.