Prediction Method Continued


(This is brief explanation of such terms and at the end I have provided some bibliography to enable those interested to explore fuller these terms)

Moon Phases: there are four such pauses in each moon cycle, and I place the phase, day and time on the page. During my research I discovered a chart that divided the hours of the day into two hour segments commencing at midnight through the whole 24 hours, and this had winter and summer entries. Beside each 2 hour segment was a weather state, and the commencement time of the moon phase determines the segment.

I further decided to determine winter as from October 1st to March , the rest of the year being summer. The operation of BST initially caused problems, for I had two entries, one GMT and then other BST; over the years have learned to aggregate these with considerable success. The moon times in former times were well known in every village, today the Internet gives you everything.

Quarter Days: of which there are four, 21st March (St Benedict), 24th June (St John), 29th September (Michaelmass) and 21st December (St Thomas). The knowledgeable will have noticed that two of these are equinoxes, one the longest day of the year and the other the shortest day of the year. Each also has a Saint attached to that day. This are most important days, for where the wind blows on this day determines the predominant direction of the wind until the next such Quarter day. An easy example was that the 21st March 2012 the wind hammered in from the east, and from that I was able to say that without any contradiction that the spring of 2012 right through to June 24th would be very cold – and it was.

Days of Prediction: of which there are 13, and are from former days and all as a result, have Christian Saint’s names, the weather on each such day indicates what the weather will be until the next such day, or in some cases gives a warning. Everyone knows that if it rains on St Swithun’s day (July 15th) it will rain for 40 days thereafter. This is a day of prediction — though the 40 day promise is better trimmed to 20 days as more reliable. You will find that the predominance of Christian Saints and Holy Days in this methodology is from the fact that in former times everyone went to church and the most learned person in any community was the priest. I accept with no qualms this data and have found nothing else to contradict it.

Supermoons: There are some full moons that are in fact nearer the earth at full moon than others and therefore appear larger and brighter. Lunar or solar events: this column gives dates and times and the particular lunar or solar event on that date, be it an eclipse of the sun or a partial eclipse of the moon etc.

Saint's Days: these are numerous throughout the year and can be found in the bibliography above, some have a distinct bearing on the weather, others give advance indicators of events to come later.

Holy Days: such as Easter, Corpus Christi, Good Friday (which is also a day of prediction), Pentecost, Pastor Sunday, Low Sunday and others all have some weather information pertinent to my methodology.

Other Days: there are some days not necessarily Holy Days or Saint's Days per se, that also have an important weather connotation and are essential to note. The easiest is St Martin – 11th November, where the wind blows this day will be the predominant wind direction until at least 2nd February (Candlemass), when it will come into force, but it is not a quarter day (for the wind) it a one of the peculiarities of the methodology that it does work. An example; 11th November 2011 the wind blew strongly from the east, but the predominant wind from the quarter day on September 29th was SW. The following quarter day on 21st December also produced a SW wind, which gave us the very mild weather over Christmas into January 2012. However on 1st February the easterly wind took over and the temperature fell to -10°C, this easterly wind continued until 21st March the next quarter day when the wind remained easterly, hence the cold spring.

Apogee and Perigee dates and times also have their own columns and entries on each format.

For those that wish to explore these days further may I suggest Natural Weather Wisdom by Uncle Offa (ISBN 1 85421 151X0 and Weather Lore by Richard Inwards (ISBN 0 946014 77 9)